Only 27 of 105 teams that started 0-3 made the playoffs: what history says about the Warriors, Heat, Bucks and Pelicans

Four teams lost their third straight game on Saturday. The Golden State Warriors fell 131-122 in Phoenix, the Miami Heat lost 115-110 in Charlotte, the Milwaukee Bucks lost 127-116 in Philadelphia and the New Orleans Pelicans gave up a 23-point lead in a 141-135 overtime loss in Denver. All four are 0-3, while Houston and Philadelphia are the only teams at 3-0.

Three games is a small sample, but it is not meaningless. We went back through every team’s first three games in the 22 seasons since the league went to 30 teams in 2004-05 to see how often a start like this has been fixed.

The numbers that stand out

• 105 teams started 0-3 from 2004-05 through 2025-26. Only 27 of them, 25.7%, reached the playoffs (play-in losers not counted)
• The 100 teams that started 3-0 reached the playoffs 77 times, 77.0%
• Teams that started 0-3 averaged 32.7 wins per 82 games. Teams that started 3-0 averaged 48.6
• Only 30 of the 105 finished .500 or better, and none reached the NBA Finals
• Of the last 22 champions, eight started 3-0 and none started 0-3. The worst starts among them were 1-2

What history says

Start after three games (2004-05 to 2025-26)	Teams	Made the playoffs	Rate	Average wins per 82 games
3-0	100	77	77.0%	48.6
0-3	105	27	25.7%	32.7

The two-game numbers matter for Sunday, when three more teams try to avoid 0-3. Since 2004-05, teams that started 0-2 made the playoffs 48 times out of 167 (28.7%). Teams that started 2-0 got there 121 times out of 171 (70.8%).

Every season in that stretch had at least two teams start 0-3, and most had four to six. The high was nine in 2015-16. This season already has four after Saturday, the same as last season’s full total, and Brooklyn, Sacramento and the loser of Orlando at New York can still join them.

The best recoveries

Some 0-3 teams have turned it around completely. The 2006-07 Dallas Mavericks lost their first four games and then won 67, still the best record of any team that started 0-3 in this period. The list also includes last season’s Boston Celtics, who started 0-3 and won 56.

Season	Team	Final record	Playoff result
2006-07	Dallas Mavericks	67-15	Lost in the first round
2012-13	Denver Nuggets	57-25	Lost in the first round
2025-26	Boston Celtics	56-26	Lost in the first round in seven games
2008-09	San Antonio Spurs	54-28	Lost in the first round
2022-23	Philadelphia 76ers	54-28	Lost in the second round
2011-12	Boston Celtics	39-27 (66 games)	Lost in the conference finals
2022-23	Los Angeles Lakers	43-39	Lost in the conference finals

Even the success stories stopped short. Only six of the 27 playoff teams that started 0-3 won a series. The deepest runs were by the 2011-12 Celtics and the 2022-23 Lakers, who both lost in the conference finals.

Warriors: no Curry, no Green, and a lead lost late

Golden State lost by 22 to the Lakers on opening night, then gave up a 12-point lead in the last 3:47 against Memphis on Friday, a game the Grizzlies closed on a 17-0 run. On Saturday, without Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Brandin Podziemski, the Warriors had no answer for Devin Booker. He scored 43 on 17-for-25 shooting, the most in a Suns home opener, breaking Charles Barkley’s record of 37 from 1992.

This is Golden State’s first 0-3 start since 2007-08, when it lost its first six games and still won 48, which was not enough to make the playoffs in the West. The Warriors have been outscored by 34 points in three games.

Heat: down 23 or more in all three games

Miami has the worst point differential in the league at minus-47. It trailed by 30 against Minnesota, by 23 against Detroit and by 23 again in Charlotte on Saturday, the second night of a back-to-back. The bench nearly saved the last one with a 27-4 run to open the fourth quarter, but the Heat still lost by five.

It is Miami’s first 0-3 start since 2007-08, a season that ended 15-67. Miami also started 0-3 in 2003-04, when it lost its first seven games and still made the playoffs.

Bucks: the most points allowed

Milwaukee has allowed 129.0 points a game, the most in the league: 128 in Washington, 132 at home against Chicago and 127 in Philadelphia. The Bucks are shooting 37.2% from three, well above the league’s cold start, so the problem is at the other end. They also led Chicago by 15 and lost that game by seven.

This is Milwaukee’s first 0-3 start since 2015-16, a season it finished 33-49.

Pelicans: the closest losses, and a 23-point lead gone

New Orleans has lost its three games by a combined 10 points: 123-120 to Indiana, 120-119 in Utah and 141-135 in overtime in Denver. Its net rating of minus-3.1 per 100 possessions is the best of the four winless teams, and the Pelicans have led by double digits in two of the three games.

Saturday was the hardest one. New Orleans scored 38 in the first quarter, led by 23 in the third and took a 108-89 lead into the fourth. Jamal Murray then scored 42 with eight threes, Nikola Jokić added 35 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists, and Denver won the fourth quarter 37-18 and overtime 15-9.

JAMAL MURRAY GOES OFF FOR 42 POINTS AND 8 THREES AS DENVER RALLIES FROM 23 DOWN 🤯

The @nuggets' comeback ties for their THIRD-LARGEST in the play-by-play era (since 1997-98) and is the biggest in franchise history at home! pic.twitter.com/3QBVT4E6b5

— NBA (@NBA) October 25, 2026

Video: NBA / X.

This is the Pelicans’ second straight 0-3 start and their third in six seasons. The 2021-22 team was the only one of their six 0-3 starts since 2004-05 to reach the playoffs, through the play-in. Last season’s ended 26-56.

The four 0-3 teams after Saturday

Team	Points scored	Points allowed	Point differential	Net rating per 100	Three-point shooting
New Orleans	374	384	-10	-3.1	29-94 (30.9%)
Milwaukee	357	387	-30	-9.2	45-121 (37.2%)
Golden State	335	369	-34	-11.1	39-116 (33.6%)
Miami	327	374	-47	-14.8	36-119 (30.3%)

What comes next

History says one of these four will probably make the playoffs, and the numbers point to New Orleans and Milwaukee as the likelier candidates, since their losses have been closer. Golden State’s outlook depends on how quickly Curry and Green return. Miami has the furthest to climb.

Sunday’s slate starts at 5 p.m. ET (midnight in Cairo). Brooklyn hosts Indiana, the Knicks host Orlando and Sacramento hosts Memphis, and each home team is 0-2. Two unbeaten teams will also lose for the first time, since Toronto plays in Minnesota and Detroit plays in Philadelphia.