Opponents are shooting 30.1% from three against the 6-0 Grizzlies and 43.9% against the Suns: why six games of opponents’ three-point shooting have told almost nothing since 2014-15

Opponents have made 68 of 226 three-point attempts against the Memphis Grizzlies this season, 30.1%. The Grizzlies have made 96 of 231 of their own, 41.6%. That gap is worth 14.0 points a game, nearly all of the 15.2-point average margin behind Memphis’ 6-0 start.

At the other end, Phoenix opponents are shooting 43.9% from three and Miami opponents 40.5%. The Suns are 1-3 and the Heat are 2-4.

Three-point percentage is the noisiest number in basketball, and opponents’ three-point percentage is noisier still. To see how much six games of it are worth, we went through the game logs of all 360 team-seasons from 2014-15 through 2025-26 and compared each team’s first six games with the rest of its season. For opponents’ shooting, the answer is almost nothing.

The numbers that stand out

League-wide, teams are shooting 34.6% from three through Saturday’s 88 games
Memphis opponents and Houston opponents are both at 30.1%, Dallas opponents at 29.7% and Washington opponents at 28.7%, the lowest in the league
Outside the three-point line, Memphis has outscored opponents by only 1.2 points a game. Houston, at 6-1, has won by 8.6 a game outside the arc
Since 2014-15, the correlation between a team’s opponents’ three-point percentage over its first six games and the rest of its season is 0.04, close to zero
The 66 teams whose opponents shot four or more points below the league average over six games averaged 5.8 points below it. For the rest of those seasons, they averaged exactly the league average
How many threes a team takes holds up far better: a correlation of 0.74 between the first six games and the rest of the season

Where every team’s opponents are shooting from three

Team	Record	Opponents’ 3-point shooting	Points a game vs. league-average opponent shooting	Average margin
Washington	3-3	72 of 251, 28.7%	7.5 fewer allowed	Plus-0.8
Dallas	4-2	63 of 212, 29.7%	5.2 fewer allowed	Plus-2.5
Houston	6-1	81 of 269, 30.1%	5.2 fewer allowed	Plus-12.4
Memphis	6-0	68 of 226, 30.1%	5.1 fewer allowed	Plus-15.2
Sacramento	0-6	89 of 228, 39.0%	5.0 more allowed	Minus-19.0
Chicago	1-5	92 of 234, 39.3%	5.5 more allowed	Minus-15.8
Miami	2-4	102 of 252, 40.5%	7.4 more allowed	Minus-3.2
Phoenix	1-3	68 of 155, 43.9%	10.8 more allowed	Minus-12.5

Regular season through Saturday’s games. The points column compares opponents’ actual made threes with what they would have made at the league’s 34.6% on the same number of attempts.

What six games of three-point shooting have meant

For each of the 360 team-seasons, we measured three-point percentages against that season’s league average, so that a 36% mark in a 35% league and a 37% mark in a 36% league count the same. Then we compared the first six games with everything after them. A correlation of 1 would mean the first six games predicted the rest perfectly; 0 means they told you nothing.

Six-game number	Correlation with the rest of the season
Three-point attempts a game, relative to the league	0.74
Point differential a game	0.54
Point differential from threes a game	0.49
Opponents’ three-point attempts a game, relative to the league	0.46
Own three-point percentage, relative to the league	0.21
Opponents’ three-point percentage, relative to the league	0.04

360 team-seasons, 2014-15 through 2025-26, regular season only.

The pattern fits what coaches and analysts have said for years. A defense can decide how many threes it gives up and how open they are, which is why opponents’ attempts carry over. Whether those shots go in over six games is mostly out of its hands. After six games, the typical team’s opponents were 3.6 points above or below the league average from three, measured as a standard deviation. Over the rest of the season, that figure was 1.2.

The same goes for the other direction. The 33 teams whose opponents shot four or more points above the league average over six games averaged 5.9 points above it. The rest of the way, they also averaged the league average, and only 17 of the 33 stayed above it at all.

The most extreme starts since 2014-15

Team	Opponents’ 3-point shooting, first six games	Rest of the season	Final record
2021-22 Jazz	24.9%, 10.5 points below the league	35.8%, about league average	49-33
2019-20 Heat	26.6%, 9.2 points below	35.5%, about league average	44-29
2014-15 Rockets	26.0%, 9.0 points below	32.6%, 2.4 points below	56-26
2018-19 Mavericks	47.1%, 11.6 points above	33.5%, 2.0 points below	33-49
2022-23 Pacers	44.9%, 8.9 points above	36.7%, about league average	35-47
2014-15 Knicks	43.0%, 8.0 points above	37.7%, 2.7 points above	17-65

Regular season only.

The 2014-15 Rockets were the one team that kept part of it. Opponents shot 26.0% from three while Houston started 6-0, and 32.6% the rest of the way. Their full-season mark of 32.2% is the lowest by any team in the 12 seasons. The 2018-19 Mavericks went the other way: opponents made 47.1% of their threes as Dallas started 2-4, then shot 33.5% for the rest of a 33-49 season, below the league average.

Memphis: a 6-0 start built from outside

The Grizzlies have been very good from three at both ends. Their own 41.6% is 7.0 points above the league average, and only six teams since 2014-15 were further above it after six games. The 16 teams that were five or more points above it after six games were 0.5 points above it for the rest of the season, on average.

Saturday’s 136-105 win over Sacramento was typical. Memphis made 19 of 38 threes and the Kings made 11 of 38. GG Jackson went 5-for-5 from three and scored 21 points in 21 minutes off the bench.

🖐️ for 🖐️ from long distance 🔥 pic.twitter.com/u14cRP4FLC
— Memphis Grizzlies (@memgrizz) November 1, 2026

Memphis’ three-point point differential of plus-14.0 a game has been topped by only 11 teams over their first six games since 2014-15. The top of that list includes the 2014-15 Rockets at plus-24.5, the 2024-25 Celtics at plus-22.0 and the 2015-16 Warriors at plus-17.5. Those Warriors finished 73-9. The 2024-25 Warriors were plus-20.5 after six games and plus-5.6 a game in threes for the rest of the season, and finished 48-34.

None of this means the Grizzlies are a mirage. Point differential after six games still had a 0.54 correlation with the rest of the season, the second-strongest number in the table. Memphis is also taking 38.5 threes a game, above the league’s 37.6, and that kind of number carries over. But the 30.1% its opponents are shooting is the part least likely to last, and it is worth about five points a game.

Houston and Washington

Houston’s opponents are also at 30.1%, but the Rockets’ start depends less on it. They have outscored opponents by 8.6 points a game on twos and free throws, and their edge from three is only 3.9 points a game.

Washington is the strangest case. Wizards opponents have made only 28.7% of their threes, the lowest in the league, while the Wizards themselves have made 29.3%, second-lowest behind Chicago. The two have roughly cancelled out, and Washington is 3-3 with an average margin of plus-0.8.

Phoenix and Miami: waiting for the misses

Phoenix opponents have made 68 of 155 threes in four games, 43.9%. At the league’s average rate, they would have made about 54. That gap is worth about 10.8 points a game for a team that has been outscored by 12.5 a game. Miami opponents are at 40.5%, worth about 7.4 points a game, and the Heat have been outscored by only 3.2 a game. If history holds, both numbers will drift back toward the league average.

What’s next

Memphis hosts New Orleans on Monday at 8 p.m. ET, 3 a.m. Tuesday in Cairo. Pelicans opponents are shooting 30.5% from three, fifth-lowest in the league. Washington plays at Orlando at 7:30 p.m. ET, Dallas hosts Sacramento at 8 p.m. ET and Houston hosts Boston at 8:30 p.m. ET. Phoenix plays at Golden State and Miami at the Lakers, both at 10 p.m. ET, 5 a.m. Tuesday in Cairo.