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Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic
2026-27 · Regular season
Bulls lose first quarters by 11.3 points a game, Bucks lose second quarters by 10.3 and Rockets win them by 9.4: the NBA’s quarter-by-quarter extremes, and how long they last
The Bulls have lost all six first quarters by a combined 68 points and the Bucks have been outscored by 10.3 a game in second quarters, both the worst six-game marks since at least 2002-03. History says quarter splits this early fade fast.
In this article
The Chicago Bulls have lost all six of their first quarters this season, by a combined 68 points. The Milwaukee Bucks have been outscored by 62 points in second quarters. Houston has gone the other way, winning second quarters by 66 points over seven games on its way to a 6-1 start.
Two weeks into the season, those are the most extreme quarter-by-quarter numbers in the league, and a few of them have no match in recent history. We went through the quarter-by-quarter scores of every regular-season game since 2002-03, 718 team-seasons through 2025-26 plus this season’s first 88 games, to see where they rank after six games and how much they have meant for the rest of a season. NBA Cup championship games, which do not count in the standings, were left out.
The numbers that stand out
- Chicago has been outscored by 11.3 points a game in first quarters, 146-214. That is the worst six-game start in any single quarter since at least 2002-03. The previous low for first quarters was minus-10.2, by the 2023-24 Lakers
- Milwaukee has been outscored by 10.3 points a game in second quarters, 152-214, also the worst six-game mark for that quarter in the period. The 2018-19 Suns were minus-10.0
- Houston outscored opponents by 10.7 points a game in second quarters over its first six games, tied with the 2007-08 Celtics for the best in the period. After Saturday’s 27-25 second quarter against Oklahoma City, the Rockets are at plus-9.4 through seven
- Sacramento has been outscored by 10.3 points a game in third quarters, the third-worst six-game mark for that quarter since 2002-03
- Philadelphia has won fourth quarters by 5.4 points a game and has won three games after trailing going into the fourth quarter, the most in the league
- Early quarter splits fade fast. Of the 66 teams since 2002-03 that were eight or more points a game better or worse than opponents in one quarter after six games, the average gap in that quarter for the rest of the season was 0.9 points
The extremes after six games, and the teams they passed
| Quarter | Team this season | Margin per game, first six games | Most extreme before this season, since 2002-03 | That team in the quarter the rest of the season |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First | Chicago | Minus-11.3 | 2023-24 Lakers, minus-10.2 | Minus-0.2; finished 47-35 |
| Second | Milwaukee | Minus-10.3 | 2018-19 Suns, minus-10.0 | Minus-3.1; finished 19-63 |
| Second | Houston | Plus-10.7 | 2007-08 Celtics, plus-10.7 | Plus-2.8; finished 66-16 and won the title |
| Third | Sacramento | Minus-10.3 | 2019-20 Kings, minus-10.7 | Minus-0.8; finished 31-41 |
Regular season, 2002-03 through Saturday’s games. Margins are points per game in that quarter only. The Rockets’ figure is for their first six games.
Chicago: behind before most games settle
The Bulls have trailed after one quarter in every game: 23-43 in Toronto, 17-32 in Milwaukee, 27-28 against Washington, 21-33 and 25-44 in two games in Boston, and 33-34 against New York. Their one win came in Milwaukee on Oct. 23, after they trailed by 15 at the end of the first quarter and then won the second 44-30.
Over the other three quarters the Bulls have been much closer to even. They are plus-2.0 in second quarters and plus-0.5 in fourth quarters, though minus-7.0 in third quarters. Their overall margin of minus-15.8 points a game is the second-worst in the league, ahead of only Sacramento.
History says the first-quarter number is the least likely part of that to last. The 2023-24 Lakers lost their first six first quarters by 10.2 points a game, were about even in first quarters the rest of the way, won the first NBA in-season tournament in December and finished 47-35. The one team in the group that stayed bad was the 2021-22 Thunder, who were minus-9.5 in first quarters after six games, minus-4.1 the rest of the season and won 24 games.
Milwaukee and Houston: the second-quarter split
Milwaukee’s second quarters have gone 33-26, 30-44, 35-30, 19-32, 14-34 and 21-48. The last two came at home against Houston on Oct. 28 and Cleveland on Saturday, when the Cavaliers scored 48 in the quarter, turned a 25-24 deficit into a 72-46 halftime lead and won 136-111. In the other three quarters the Bucks have been close to even: plus-0.8 in first quarters, minus-1.3 in third quarters and minus-2.3 in fourth quarters.
Houston’s best second quarters were 38-12 against Dallas on opening night, 34-14 in Milwaukee and 31-17 in Dallas on Friday, a game the Rockets still lost 116-111 after Dallas won the fourth quarter 40-27. The Rockets have won the second quarter in five of seven games and lost it only once, 32-29 in San Antonio. Their overall margin of plus-12.4 points a game is second in the league behind unbeaten Memphis.
How much six games of quarter scores tell you
For each team since 2002-03, we compared its margin in each quarter over the first six games with its margin in that same quarter for the rest of the season. A correlation of 1 would mean the early number predicted the rest perfectly, and 0 would mean it told you nothing.
| Margin after six games | Correlation with the rest of the season |
|---|---|
| Whole game | 0.55 |
| First quarter | 0.32 |
| Third quarter | 0.28 |
| Second quarter | 0.24 |
| Fourth quarter | 0.04 |
718 team-seasons, 2002-03 through 2025-26, regular season only. Calculated from quarter-by-quarter scores.
A team’s overall margin after six games holds up reasonably well. Single quarters hold up much less, and fourth quarters barely at all, probably because they include garbage time in blowouts and close-game swings in tight ones. Of the 66 teams that were eight or more points a game better or worse in one quarter after six games, 50 stayed on the same side of zero in that quarter for the rest of the season, but the average gap shrank from 9.1 points to 0.9. Only six kept a gap of three points or more.
Philadelphia: the fourth quarter, again
The 76ers are 6-1 with an overall margin of only plus-3.9 points a game, and the fourth quarter is the difference. They trailed Cleveland by eight, Indiana by 13 and Charlotte by six going into the fourth quarter and won all three. Against Indiana on Oct. 28 they won the fourth quarter 39-21, and Tyrese Maxey scored 17 of his 27 points in it. On Saturday in Charlotte, without LeBron James and Joel Embiid, Maxey scored 15 of his 38 in the fourth. The league said it was his third 15-point fourth quarter this season and that no other player had more than one.
Across the league, teams that trailed after three quarters have won 17 times in the first 88 games. Philadelphia has three of them. No other team has more than two.
The 76ers have been here before. Through six games last season, they won fourth quarters by 10.8 points a game, the best start in that quarter since at least 2002-03. For the rest of the season they were plus-0.4 in fourth quarters, and they finished 45-37.
What’s next
Chicago plays at Philadelphia on Monday at 7:30 p.m. ET, 2:30 a.m. Tuesday in Cairo, which puts the league’s worst first-quarter team against its best fourth-quarter team. Milwaukee plays at Minnesota at 8 p.m. ET, 3 a.m. Tuesday in Cairo, and Houston hosts Boston at 8:30 p.m. ET, 3:30 a.m. Tuesday in Cairo.
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