NBA games are being decided by 13.0 points, the widest start in 12 seasons, and only 10 of 121 have come down to three points or fewer

NBA games are being decided by 13.0 points on average through Wednesday night’s slate, the widest start of the last 12 seasons, and only 10 of the 121 games played have come down to three points or fewer, the lowest share of any of them. At the same time scoring is down 3.8 points a game from last season’s start, so teams are not piling up points in every game. Ten of the 30 teams are outscoring or being outscored by at least 10 points a game, and the spread between the best and worst teams is the widest of the 12 starts.

The Knicks added the latest 30-point margin on Wednesday, beating the Bulls 135-105 after leading 84-52 at halftime:

GOOD. TEAM. WIN. pic.twitter.com/y7jMCuLF7T
— NEW YORK KNICKS (@nyknicks) November 5, 2026

Jalen Brunson scored 33 points in 28 minutes, 22 of them in the first quarter. The game was one of nine decided by 30 or more points this season, which ties the 2020-21 start for the most in the last 12.

The numbers that stand out

The average final margin is 13.0 points in 121 games, up from 12.0 over the first eight games of last season and above the previous high of 12.6, set in 2020-21. The median game is decided by 10
28 games, 23.1 percent, have been decided by 20 or more points. Only the 2018-19 start was higher, at 28 of 118 games, 23.7 percent
Nine games, 7.4 percent, were decided by 30 or more, tied with 2020-21 for the most of any start in the last 12
Ten games, 8.3 percent, were decided by three points or fewer. The lowest share in any of the last 12 starts was 10.7 percent, 13 of 121 games, in 2015-16
Home teams are 62-59, a .512 mark, with an average margin of +1.6. Home-court advantage is not what is stretching the scores

Twelve starts side by side

Season, each team’s first eight games	Games	Average margin	Decided by 20 or more	Decided by 3 or fewer
2014-15	122	10.0	11 (9.0%)	24 (19.7%)
2015-16	121	11.4	18 (14.9%)	13 (10.7%)
2016-17	123	11.7	21 (17.1%)	20 (16.3%)
2017-18	122	11.7	20 (16.4%)	16 (13.1%)
2018-19	118	12.0	28 (23.7%)	24 (20.3%)
2019-20	120	10.5	17 (14.2%)	21 (17.5%)
2020-21	121	12.6	27 (22.3%)	22 (18.2%)
2021-22	121	12.2	22 (18.2%)	18 (14.9%)
2022-23	119	10.8	18 (15.1%)	21 (17.6%)
2023-24	120	11.5	18 (15.0%)	21 (17.5%)
2024-25	119	11.6	23 (19.3%)	22 (18.5%)
2025-26	120	12.0	25 (20.8%)	17 (14.2%)
2026-27 (through Wednesday)	121	13.0	28 (23.1%)	10 (8.3%)

Past seasons count each team’s first eight games, counted once per game from the home side. The 2026-27 row counts all 121 games played through Wednesday, with teams at six to nine games each. The 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons were shortened.

Wednesday did not follow the pattern, but the extremes did

Wednesday’s 14 games averaged 10.3 points, below the season figure. Two of them came down to a single point: the Spurs beat the Mavericks 112-111 and the Heat beat the Clippers 117-116 in overtime. Those two are among the 10 games decided by three points or fewer. The rest of the night had the 30-point Knicks win, a 19-point Nuggets win over the Raptors, a 15-point Hawks win at Washington, and 13-point wins for the Trail Blazers at Phoenix and the Lakers at Sacramento.

The nine biggest margins of the season:

Date	Result	Margin
Oct. 23	Hawks 128, Hornets 81	47
Oct. 21	Raptors 135, Bulls 92	43
Oct. 21	Trail Blazers 124, Suns 83	41
Oct. 26	Celtics 134, Bulls 99	35
Nov. 2	Pistons 124, Hornets 91	33
Oct. 28	Rockets 132, Bucks 100	32
Oct. 31	Grizzlies 136, Kings 105	31
Oct. 28	Raptors 129, Magic 99	30
Nov. 4	Knicks 135, Bulls 105	30

A league of two tiers

The wide margins come from a wide gap between teams, not from one-sided nights spread evenly. The standard deviation of the 30 teams’ average margins is 8.3 points a game, the highest of any start in the last 12 seasons. The previous high was 7.8 in 2024-25. Ten teams are at least 10 points a game from zero, against a previous high of six in a start.

Team	Record	Average margin
Timberwolves	6-3	+11.2
Trail Blazers	6-1	+11.1
Grizzlies	6-2	+10.8
Rockets	7-2	+10.3
Bulls	1-7	-18.0
Kings	1-7	-14.0
Bucks	1-7	-12.2
Jazz	1-7	-11.2
Hornets	3-6	-11.1
Suns	1-5	-11.0

The four best and six worst teams by average margin through Wednesday.

The six teams at -10 or worse are a combined 8-39. The four at +10 or better are 25-8. Chicago is last at -18.0 with a 1-7 record, and its three 20-point losses are tied with Utah and Sacramento for the most in the league. Minnesota has four 20-point wins, the most, and Memphis has three.

What history says about the spread

Early margins have been a reasonable guide to the rest of the season. Across the 360 team-starts from 2014-15 through 2025-26, a team’s average margin over its first eight games and over the rest of the regular season have a correlation of 0.62.

We found 20 teams that started at least 10 points a game below zero. They averaged -12.8 over the first eight games, then -6.3 over the rest of the season, and won 31.1 percent of the remaining games, about 25 wins over 82. Only one finished at .500 or better: the 2018-19 Magic, who started -12.0 and ended 42-40.

The 28 teams that started at +10 or better averaged +12.5, then +5.8 afterward, and won 67.2 percent of their remaining games, about 56 wins over 82. All 28 finished at .500 or better. Houston, Minnesota, Portland and Memphis are in that position this year.

The wider margins are not new to this season, either. Over the games after each team’s first eight, the average margin was 12.7 points in 2023-24, 12.9 in 2024-25 and 13.4 in 2025-26, the highest in the 12 seasons and above the first eight games of each of those years (11.5, 11.7 and 12.0). This start is at 13.0.

What’s next

Thursday’s schedule is two games. Orlando, at -9.0 a game, plays at Phoenix, at -11.0, at 9 p.m. ET, and Miami goes to Golden State at 10 p.m. ET. Friday starts a weekend of 31 games, with NBA Cup group play.

Game results: ESPN box scores. Historical game logs: Basketball-Reference.