Timberwolves and Hornets are both 3-2 but 20 points a game apart: what point differential after five games has meant since 2004-05

Minnesota and Charlotte have the same record. Both are 3-2. The Timberwolves have outscored opponents by 63 points, an average of 12.6 a game, the third-best margin in the league. The Hornets have been outscored by 36 points, or 7.2 a game, the ninth-worst. Their records say they are even. Their scoreboards say they are about 20 points a game apart.

Which one tells you more this early? We went back through every regular season since 2004-05, the first with 30 teams, 660 team-seasons in all, using league schedules and results checked against Basketball-Reference team game logs. For each team we took its record and its point differential after its first five games, then looked at how the rest of its season went. NBA Cup championship games, which do not count in the standings, were left out.

The numbers that stand out

After five games, point differential has tracked how the rest of a season goes a little more closely than the record has. The correlation with a team’s win rate the rest of the way was 0.52 for point differential and 0.47 for wins and losses
Of the 59 teams that were plus-10 or better a game after five games, 54 made the playoffs (91.5%). Of the 50 teams that were worse than minus-10, five did (10%)
No team that was minus-15 or worse a game after five games has made the playoffs since 2004-05. There were 10 of them, and they averaged 24.5 wins per 82 games. Sacramento (minus-16.6) and Chicago (minus-16.2) are there now
Teams that started 3-2 with a positive point differential made the playoffs 70.8% of the time. Teams that started 3-2 while being outscored made it 56.0% of the time
Only three teams since 2004-05 had a winning record after five games while being outscored by seven or more points a game. None of them won more than 44 games. Charlotte is the fourth
All 13 teams that started 5-0 with a margin of 14 points a game or better made the playoffs, and they averaged 62.5 wins per 82 games. Houston is 5-0 at plus-14.2

What point differential after five games has meant since 2004-05

Point differential per game after five games	Teams	Made the playoffs	Rate	Average wins per 82 games
Plus-10 or better	59	54	91.5%	54.1
Plus-5 to plus-9.9	115	84	73.0%	47.0
0 to plus-4.9	149	88	59.1%	43.5
Minus-0.1 to minus-5	176	88	50.0%	39.8
Minus-5.1 to minus-10	111	33	29.7%	33.0
Worse than minus-10	50	5	10.0%	26.4

Regular seasons 2004-05 through 2025-26. Play-in teams that reached the first round count as playoff teams. Wins are scaled to 82 games for the shortened 2011-12, 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons.

Minnesota: three blowouts and two close losses

The Timberwolves won at Miami by 25, at Orlando by 22 and at home against Toronto by 23. Their two losses came by two points at Cleveland and by five at home against Golden State, the night Stephen Curry scored 44. That is how a team ends up at 3-2 with the margin of a 5-0 team.

Nine teams since 2004-05 started 3-2 while winning by 10 or more points a game. Seven made the playoffs, and they averaged 49.7 wins per 82 games. Two of them came last season: the Nuggets, who were plus-12.2 and won 54 games, and the Rockets, who were plus-13.6 and won 52. The third team from last season is the warning. Miami started 3-2 at plus-11.4, won 43 games and lost in the play-in.

The catch for Minnesota is that the team that built this margin is not the team that will play the next month. Anthony Edwards had arthroscopic surgery on his right knee on Thursday, and the Wolves have given no return date. Shams Charania reported he could miss up to two months. Edwards averaged 33.2 points in his four games.

Charlotte: one bad night in Atlanta

The Hornets’ number comes almost entirely from one game. They lost 128-81 at home to Atlanta on Oct. 23, a 47-point loss. In their other four games, they were plus-11 combined: wins by seven at Brooklyn, five against Miami and seven against Washington, and an eight-point loss at Detroit. Take out the Atlanta game and Charlotte is about plus-2.8 a game.

That is the problem with point differential after five games. One blowout can move it by nine points a game. Still, history is not kind to teams in Charlotte’s spot. The three earlier teams with a winning record and a margin of minus-7 or worse after five games were the 2006-07 Heat (44-38, playoffs), the 2007-08 Bobcats (32-50) and the 2015-16 Grizzlies (42-40, playoffs). Of the 123 teams within 2.5 points of Charlotte’s margin after five games, 41 made the playoffs.

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Toronto, Houston and the bottom of the table

Toronto has the best margin in the league at plus-15.0 a game, though after only four games. The Raptors beat Chicago by 43 in their opener and Orlando by 30 on Wednesday. Of the 25 teams since 2004-05 that were plus-15 or better after four games, 22 made the playoffs. Seven of those started 3-1, like Toronto, and six made it. The one that did not was, again, last season’s Heat.

Houston (5-0, plus-14.2) and Memphis (5-0, plus-12.0) are in the best company there is. All 16 teams that started 5-0 while winning by 12 or more points a game made the playoffs, and they averaged 61.3 wins per 82 games. The 14 teams that started 5-0 by smaller margins went 13-for-14, and the one miss was last season’s Bulls, who were plus-8.8 after five games and finished 31-51.

At the bottom, Sacramento and Chicago have been outscored by more than 16 points a game. Of the 17 teams since 2004-05 within 2.5 points of Chicago’s margin after five games, one made the playoffs: the 2007-08 Wizards, who started 0-5 at minus-13.8 and finished 43-39. None of the 13 teams that close to Sacramento’s margin did.

All 30 teams against their history

For each team, this table counts the teams since 2004-05 whose point differential after the same number of games was within 2.5 points a game of this season’s, then shows how those teams finished. Atlanta has played six games, Toronto, Portland, Boston, Denver, the Clippers, Brooklyn and Orlando four, and Phoenix three. Records and margins are through Thursday’s games.

Team	Record	Point differential per game	Similar teams since 2004-05	Made the playoffs	Average wins per 82 games
Toronto Raptors	3-1	+15.0	27	26 (96%)	55.7
Houston Rockets	5-0	+14.2	25	23 (92%)	53.1
Minnesota Timberwolves	3-2	+12.6	45	40 (89%)	52.3
Memphis Grizzlies	5-0	+12.0	50	45 (90%)	52.0
Los Angeles Lakers	4-1	+9.6	68	56 (82%)	50.5
Portland Trail Blazers	3-1	+8.8	94	71 (76%)	47.5
Boston Celtics	3-1	+8.0	104	75 (72%)	46.7
San Antonio Spurs	3-2	+6.6	128	93 (73%)	46.7
Detroit Pistons	4-1	+6.4	129	94 (73%)	46.8
Atlanta Hawks	3-3	+4.7	149	100 (67%)	46.1
Oklahoma City Thunder	4-1	+3.6	159	101 (64%)	44.6
Philadelphia 76ers	4-1	+3.4	153	97 (63%)	44.7
Dallas Mavericks	3-2	+2.0	156	91 (58%)	43.0
Cleveland Cavaliers	3-2	+1.0	170	90 (53%)	42.0
New York Knicks	2-3	+0.2	173	87 (50%)	41.1
Indiana Pacers	2-3	+0.2	173	87 (50%)	41.1
LA Clippers	1-3	-1.5	156	77 (49%)	39.8
Golden State Warriors	2-3	-1.8	168	79 (47%)	39.3
Washington Wizards	2-3	-2.2	170	80 (47%)	39.3
New Orleans Pelicans	1-4	-2.2	170	80 (47%)	39.3
Denver Nuggets	2-2	-3.2	138	67 (49%)	39.0
Charlotte Hornets	3-2	-7.2	123	41 (33%)	34.0
Utah Jazz	1-4	-7.8	110	32 (29%)	33.0
Miami Heat	1-4	-7.8	110	32 (29%)	33.0
Brooklyn Nets	0-4	-9.8	95	30 (32%)	33.3
Milwaukee Bucks	1-4	-10.8	59	16 (27%)	31.9
Orlando Magic	1-3	-12.5	58	11 (19%)	30.0
Phoenix Suns	1-2	-14.3	51	12 (24%)	31.5
Chicago Bulls	1-4	-16.2	17	1 (6%)	23.1
Sacramento Kings	0-5	-16.6	13	0 (0%)	22.3

What to watch

Ten games on Friday open Emirates NBA Cup group play. Minnesota hosts the Clippers in its first game since Edwards’ surgery. Charlotte is at Washington, Chicago is at Boston, Orlando is at Toronto and Houston goes for 6-0 in Dallas. The early games tip at 7 p.m. ET, 1 a.m. Saturday in Cairo.