Rival executives are watching the Thunder’s coming cuts, with November 2 guarantee decisions on Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber up first

Rival executives are watching Oklahoma City’s books, expecting the Thunder to cut from a payroll projection that Brian Windhorst puts at about $250 million in salary and roughly $200 million in luxury tax next season. That is before three potential 2027 first-round picks – incoming from the Clippers, Nuggets (top-five protected) and Spurs (lottery protected) – that could push the total cost toward $500 million.

Windhorst reports the first decisions come by November 2, when the Thunder must choose whether to guarantee Nikola Topic’s $7.5 million and Thomas Sorber’s $5.1 million salaries. They also hold a $7.8 million team option on Jaylin Williams for next summer. Windhorst notes they cannot keep all three players and use all three picks, and that retaining Topic and Sorber would add more than $60 million to the tax bill alone.

“They will not be paying that much, so it comes down to who and how they cut some of it,” an executive from another team told Windhorst. “(General manager) Sam (Presti) I’m sure has studied it at length and will develop two or three paths out and will look for the cleanest option over the next year.”

The squeeze has been building. Oklahoma City opened this season at $214.28 million in payroll, above the tax line and about $7 million under the second apron, as we laid out before the extension deadline, and then gave Cason Wallace a five-year, $139 million extension that lands on the books in 2027-28, when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s new deal begins.