Cason Wallace and Anthony Black extensions come down to tax math before Monday’s deadline

Oct. 15, 2026 — Two of the best defensive guards in the 2023 draft class are heading into the final days before Monday’s rookie-extension deadline without new contracts, and for both the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Orlando Magic the main question isn’t how good Cason Wallace and Anthony Black are. It’s what paying them would do to the team’s tax bill.

Teams have until 6 p.m. ET on Monday, Oct. 19, the day before the regular season opens, to extend 2023 first-round picks. Any player who doesn’t sign plays out the last year of his rookie deal and can become a restricted free agent next summer, when his team can match any offer sheet as long as it tenders a qualifying offer.

A slow market so far

Only five members of the class have signed so far: Victor Wembanyama, Amen Thompson, Ausar Thompson, Keyonte George and Brandin Podziemski. Front-office analyst Bobby Marks noted that the league has averaged 11 rookie extensions a year since 2023, and that 17 of the 34 players extended over the past three seasons signed on deadline day. A late rush is normal, but that leaves a lot of decisions for the final weekend.

Oklahoma City: a $25 million deal, a much bigger tax bill

Wallace has done the work on the court. He made an All-Defensive team for the first time last season, finished seventh in Defensive Player of the Year voting and is one of five guards to win a Defensive Player of the Month award over the past two seasons, along with Dyson Daniels, Derrick White, Andrew Nembhard and Amen Thompson.

General manager Sam Presti has also made clear how the team sees him. “I would just say Cason is someone we think very highly of and has done a great job for us,” Presti said before training camp. “I think the greatest sign of respect we could have shown Cason is moving Lu [Dort] in that trade.”

The problem is the payroll. With the first year of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s supermax extension starting, Oklahoma City is about $1.9 million over the second apron. Talks have been reported near $25 million a year, and Marks estimated that a contract starting at that level would push the Thunder deeper past the apron and cost them roughly $150 million more in luxury taxes over its life. That’s on top of the raise itself.

Marks’ suggested framework is five years and $145 million, starting at $25 million and rising to $33 million. That would be below George’s five-year, $157.5 million deal with Utah, which Wallace’s side has reportedly looked at as a comparison. Oklahoma City has already shown it will make hard calls to protect its core: this offseason it traded Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe.

Orlando: the $13 million line

Black is a different case, and the numbers are tighter. Before he hurt his back in early March, the 22-year-old was on track for Most Improved Player consideration, raising his scoring from 9.4 to 15.3 points per game and shooting a career-best 44.7% from the field. The Magic have a habit of locking up their own picks, having extended Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero over the past three offseasons.

But Orlando will have four players earning more than $26 million in each of the next two seasons: Wagner, Banchero, Desmond Bane and Suggs. The Magic project to be about $20 million under the luxury tax for 2027-28, the season any Black extension would start. According to Marks, a first-year salary above about $13 million would push them over the tax line. That’s less than next season’s projected $16 million non-tax midlevel exception, and possibly well below what Black could get as a restricted free agent.

That leaves Orlando weighing a deal that fits under the tax against what Black might be worth on the open market. The Magic also have to decide whether he is a starter or a sixth man behind a Suggs-Bane backcourt that is under contract through at least 2028-29, and whether a group that hasn’t gotten past the first round is worth paying the tax for again.

What happens if no deal is reached

Missing the deadline doesn’t mean losing the player. Both teams would keep matching rights in restricted free agency, and both guards would play this season on the final year of their rookie contracts. The trade-off is flexibility: without an extension, each player carries a cap hold into next summer and other teams get a chance to set his price with an offer sheet.

Wallace and Black aren’t the only names left. Brandon Miller, Dereck Lively II, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Scoot Henderson are also still unsigned, and Monday is the last day to extend veterans with two years left on their contracts, such as the group that includes Jaylen Brown, Anthony Edwards and Zion Williamson. By Monday evening, every one of these teams will have made its call on paying now or waiting for restricted free agency.